Protests in Taiwan - updated 4/6/14

Hey this is long, and possibly boring, and there aren’t too many pictures either….sorry.

It’s been fascinating to follow the protests here in Taiwan and the larger political climate. During our short time here, I have been a rather keen observer of the politics of this place, and those of the People’s Republic of China as it relates to Taiwan.

But  let me say at the outset, the following are the observations of a definite non-expert outsider, with some admitted simplifications and broadbrush treatments,  so with those caveats and disclaimers….

3/30/14 protests in Taipei

3/30 protest - There are, as usual, conflicting estimates on crowd size, some as high as 500,000 and the low end in the 200,000s... but I figure any time you get even 200,000 humans at the same place at the same time for something other than a sporting event or a concert, something's probably going on.

There are so many strange contradictions and vestigial tails of policy and thought process here as I see it - it’s a bit of a complex mess.

First off, Taiwan maintains constitutionally that *it* is ‘China’… the Republic of China, so that’s still around to muddy the water and complicate international relations.  Secondly, the KMT is still in power here. That is the party of martial law, wanton massacre and avowed enemies of communism - Chiang Kai Shek et al. Current Taiwanese President Ma is a member of the KMT, and the current legislature is KMT controlled.  And yet it appears that both the KMT and Ma cannot sell out the Taiwanese people, sovereignty  and security to the communist PRC fast enough.

Not sure exactly what date, could be when they cleared a government building last week. When will protesters learn not to attack police batons with their heads? Seriously I do not understand why this seems to be the norm for police the world over - including the great US of A and even the People's Republic of Portland, where peaceful, hell even unruly demonstrators are subjected to, as a matter of policy/training it appears, what are potentially deadly blows to the head.  Seems out of all proportion - not that getting whacked in the back or across the limbs is any picnic, but far less likely to, you know, kill or maim for life*

Note the provocative, threatening posture of the demonstrators here. 

There are definitely people here in favor of ‘unifying’ with the PRC, there’s plenty of money to be made, of course.  But there’s more to it than just that - the pull of the shared Chinese heritage and large elements of culture are very strong ones.  This is an angle that Ma and others in the KMT appeal to regularly - along with the PRC.   I can see that this is certainly not a small thing.  But also, coming from the US, and our history, this sort of seems like a measure of BS as well.   Following that line of reasoning, Canada, the US, Australia and New Zealand should all still be subjects of the Queen what with our shared language and significantly similar cultural history of many of the respective country’s founders/early citizens.   Of course it’s more complex than that, but it’s also as simple as that too.  Added into the mix, to my eye, is a strong strain of nativism and cultural chauvinism that undergirds this as well, the Chinese-ness that supposedly trumps all.  This chauvinism/nativism seems a hallmark of so much of retrograde, conservative thought and politics across the planet - pick a nation, language, or culture; you don’t have to go too deep to find it.

There are also those in favor of upsetting the wonderfully cryptic ‘status quo’ and formally and specifically declaring independence from China.  This of course has risks as the PRC has lobbed the occasional missile over head when talk of this nature gets too pronounced - and, pathetically the US gets all wobbly and scared at this as well since prices for cheap plastic crap at WalMart could increase if tensions get too high.  But there are many who value and wish for a totally free and independent Taiwan.  These folks are drawn from across a wide swath of people here, both aboriginal peoples as well as folks descended from more recent arrivals too.  I’d imagine that there are some amongst them who are ‘anti-Chinese’, but it also appears that plenty are simply ‘pro-Taiwanese’, that is, they, like millions of others across the planet, simply seek the right of self determination regarding their countries - the right to be free from coercion, military, economic threat, and outside influence in the matters of their nation and governance.

Then there seems to be a considerable number of people who are actually ok with a measure of the status quo - this supposed ‘1 China, 2 interpretations’ song and dance that, to varying degrees, the whole planet has been following.  

Not rocking the boat seems to be the goal - in either direction for this group.  They would likely bristle at more Chinese influence here just as they would reject an outright move to independence.   The only rub is that the PRC is definitely pursuing a boiling frog approach here - the temperature of the water is being raised ever so slowly as they seek to entangle Taiwan ever more fully with PRC, pushing towards making the status quo that people seek not to upset get to de facto annexation leading ultimately to a de jure result. Taking the long view is much easier when you have thousands of years of cultural history to look back on.

However if recent polls are accurate, the number of people actually preferring  becoming part of the PRC is much smaller than the number of people favoring the status quo or independence.

It’s strange to live in a place that has a flag, passports, currency, somewhat clear territorial borders, a military, a fully functioning, independent government etc and yet, is not as such, a country - particularly when there are a number of ‘failed states’ around the globe that have hardly any of the above and yet are recognized as ‘nations’.   

As a result of PRC demands, Taiwan is continually squeezed out of international bodies that deal with civil aviation, trade, sports etc - if you are watching the olympics or track and field world championships or other similar event - Taiwanese athletes are identified as being from ‘Chinese Taipei’… whatever  and wherever the hell that is.   The first word refers to a large country across the Taiwan Strait from here and the other is a city at the north end of this ‘nation’.   It’s total BS and in my opinion, it’s pathetic that the rest of the planet allows this to happen - but once again, there’s money to be made in the PRC, mustn’t do anything to impact that.  Another example that drives me a bit nuts is to use a pull down country menu online or on Apple products of all things that list this island, this place, dare I say, this country/nation,  as ‘Taiwan, province of China’

That would be Apple, most all of whose products are made in China, many by Taiwanese owned companies.   And those same Taiwanese companies, even if they had interest in Taiwanese independence, they sure as heck wouldn’t and couldn’t say anything publicly - again, too much money to be made to risk the wrath of the PRC.  

Therein lies another interesting muddle - a considerable part of the growth of Chinese manufacturing was via Taiwanese companies financing and growing manufacturing there.  They, like many US and global corporations, were simply chasing the lowest cost of labor they could find and helped build a colossus next door.  They have also hollowed out the Taiwanese employment base and stifled the economy here - much like the rest of the developed world chasing third world labor.  Heck it’s already happening in China - the race to the bottom for wages and environmental degradation is starting to pass them by in favor of Cambodia, Laos and elsewhere.

So you’ve got all of the above against the backdrop of Hong Kong citizens finding that most all of the promises the PRC made when Hong Kong got folded back into the PRC under the ‘1 country 2 systems’ theory have been ignored or otherwise not kept fully.  It’s a vivid cautionary tale, just a short way away from here.   

I’m just a visitor here so I don’t really have a dog in this fight except for this one thing - the idea that self determination of people and countries should mean something.  To me,  the United States should actually live up to the ideals we were founded upon (and we’ve got a bunch of work on that at home as well as abroad, clearly).   

The US relationship with Taiwan is so strange as well - if we followed our Taiwan Relations Act we’d be drawn in to help defend Taiwan from PRC military attack, but that, of course, would be messy.   Despite our arms sales and military support on one hand - of late, it seems we are more eager to not have to actually, you know stand up to the PRC in any meaningful way as it relates to Taiwan - even in words.  I’m not talking about sending in the US Navy 7th Fleet (though we have done so in the past) cause that could cost some corporation some money or something.  

I’m talking about using the soft power of the US and the rest of the world to stand up to the PRC’s bullying of Taiwan in international spaces, whether it’s sports, or trade groups, or other international bodies.  It’s pathetic to see how the planet kowtows to the PRC on this subject.   Long ago we pledged to the PRC not to recognize Taiwan as a country but hell, there’s all kinds of things we pledged long ago about not torturing people, or spying on them without warrant, or attacking countries for no good reason, but since we’ve pissed all over those pledges, why this one is so sacrosanct, I’m not sure… and yes, I’m being flip here, but in seriousness, I don’t see why we cannot lead the way in an incremental approach to independence if that’s what the Taiwanese people seek.  

To the contrary, it seems that our words and policy is the opposite, geared towards incremental moves towards PRC annexation.   A week or so back, Evan Medeiros, the  Senior Director for Asian Affairs on Obama’s National Security Council said the following as he sought to clarify PRC mischaracterization of Obama/Xi discussions on Taiwan by saying: 

 "China should focus on winning the hearts and the minds of the people of Taiwan as opposed to making them insecure about U.S. policy as if somehow we have changed our position on Taiwan and are saying things differently in meetings with President Xi than we do publicly, which we aren't," he said.”

This was a small part of a larger statement pushing back against PRC claims that the US sees matters on Taiwan like the PRC does, and the statement took pains to clarify and say that there’s been no change, so that was good.  But do you see the words used in the quote above?  That the US policy overall is that the PRC should “focus on winning the hearts and minds of the people of Taiwan”  That strikes me as suggesting that the PRC should continue its efforts to coerce Taiwan to agree to annexation.  Winning hearts and minds *might* be something that one state does to curry favor with citizens of another state, but most often that phrase seems to be used in terms of war and conquest - sufficiently wooing the populace you’ve invaded/overtaken into seeing yours as a benign/helpful presence.   

It would strike me that our efforts should,  even incrementally if the realpolitik requires it, at least be driving home the idea that the final determination of what happens to and with Taiwan relative to the PRC should rest solely with, you know, the people of Taiwan.   *That* would seem to me to be living up to the ideals that the US was founded upon.  But hey, if we can’t even manage to apply the dictates of the Constitution to our own governance and citizens, I know it’s high folly for me to expect noble moves across the world from us.   

The preceding is recent, but back in 2003, the US opposed the moves of Taiwan’s then President  Chen Shui-bian to amend the constitution here in ways that both the PRC and the US feared moved towards declaring independence - again, so much for the idea that people should have the right of political self determination.  I get that things are more complicated than that - loads of people seek political self determination - we could easily fracture the planet into many more countries than currently exist, and I wouldn’t hazard a guess as to who is or is not justified in seeking such a right on a broad level, but Taiwan/PRC seems a pretty reasonable case to come down on the side of allowing the people of Taiwan to decide - whether we or anyone else on the planet can help make that happen is a big question, but it seems to me to be worth the effort.

I don’t even know enough to say if Taiwan should be independent or actually pack it in and become a part of the PRC’s Fujian Province or whatever - but that should be up to the people of Taiwan to decide, unswayed by pressure from within and without.

The trade pact that was the proximate cause of the recent demonstrations here is a great example of the PRC’s attempt to annex Taiwan without firing a shot.  This pact, like many previous seem all built to increase the PRC influence here and drive the eventual merger forward as a fait accompli.

Seems to be some effort by the protestors to interfere with the Taipei sanitation departments new street cleaning devices.  Again, note the provocative stance the demonstrators are adopting here, it's pretty clear they had it coming to them I think.  The streets must be properly hosed off daily or disorder, uncleanliness and chaos will ensue, right? *

Again, if that’s what people here want, go for it, but I think it should be done consciously, openly and democratically by the people of Taiwan.  And not by force, either the kinetic force of artillery shells hitting targets, or the force of covert and overt external and internal political and economic defacto unification leading to final annexation if that is against the people of Taiwan’s wishes. 


Update:   Here are a few bits for  more context and analysis:

The Diplomat - Say Goodbye to Peaceful Unification by J.Michael Cole 

The Taipei Times -  'White Wolf' Leads Pro-pact Rally .... this is a great little story about a convicted gangster, who is now pushing 'unification' with China, after many years living in the PRC.  Note my aforementioned nativism/chauvinism/nationalism mentioned in the story.  Bonus points for the fact that there is a pro-unification organization with the word 'Patriot' in their organization name.... why is it that so often the use of that word is attached to things that are anything but *actually* patriotic?  

* I don't doubt that some protests and protestors in some places are violent, and those may indeed require a level of violence from the authorities to ultimately protect lives and property.  However, there are plenty that are largely police riots - where otherwise peaceful demonstrators are set upon with violence out of proportion with the 'provocation' of simply being in the streets en masse as a form of civil disobedience (and sometimes, not even that),  hence my snarkiness above.   As a further example of what I am getting at here, the head of the police force here made what appear to be pretty disingenuous claims regarding injuries to police - seems they were counting every scratch and abrasion to claim that more police officers were injured than protestors.  Meanwhile more of the injuries to the protestors included things like fractured skulls, fractured eye sockets, vertabrae etc... so there you go.